{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9743ea13-add8-4c8a-8553-1356984c3e2c", "symbol": "FG1", "name": "Flynn Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.648, "architecture_energy": 29.567, "architecture_maturity": 43.245, "architecture_confidence": 63.571, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.22, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 15.0, "deceleration": 63.56, "rotation_down": 37.35, "downward_expansion": 62.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.020267, 0.0202, 0.021295, 0.022071 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.023, "distance_from_trend": -0.130435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.033216, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.397884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.218768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130435, "excess_performance": -0.19414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026798, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.397884, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.228936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3445561, "relative_activity": 1.176406, "balance": 0.228936, "dry_up": 0.829839, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113462, "annualized_volatility": 0.693073, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023, "fair_value_reference": 0.033216, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -2.4e-05, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.023131, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.483333, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.071894, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": -0.414634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.133478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.138088, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.415584, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.479015, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.07, "volume": 212270, "typical_volume": 579030.65, "trend": 0.075067, "fair_value": 0.118687, "relative_strength": -20.176836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"trend": 0.023433, "fair_value": 0.0343, "relative_strength": -17.474467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.651203, "energy": 65.021301, "activity_lines": [ 0.019933, 0.020745, 0.022205, 0.022865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 5741162, "typical_volume": 3180749.05, "trend": 0.023367, "fair_value": 0.034075, "relative_strength": -16.716706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.212377, "energy": 62.521213, "activity_lines": [ 0.019867, 0.020455, 0.021914, 0.022643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 421709, "typical_volume": 3085718.7, "trend": 0.0233, "fair_value": 0.033851, "relative_strength": -15.853069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.321765, "energy": 45.228853, "activity_lines": [ 0.019867, 0.020255, 0.021652, 0.022426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 113589, "typical_volume": 2857404.55, "trend": 0.0232, "fair_value": 0.033537, "relative_strength": -13.107681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.776221, "energy": 31.377547, "activity_lines": [ 0.020333, 0.020309, 0.02151, 0.022277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 3445561, "typical_volume": 2928887.95, "trend": 0.023, "fair_value": 0.033216, "relative_strength": -19.218768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.648069, "energy": 29.567098, "activity_lines": [ 0.020267, 0.0202, 0.021295, 0.022071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }