{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97452594-9e83-458e-b3fa-69e22121db03", "symbol": "GOLD", "name": "GoldMining Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.224, "architecture_energy": 53.171, "architecture_maturity": 63.779, "architecture_confidence": 93.883, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 8.6, "deceleration": 58.51, "rotation_down": 53.31, "downward_expansion": 81.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.257333, 1.268909, 1.368333, 1.484086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 1.671667, "distance_from_trend": -0.15653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.348974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.103033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273196, "excess_performance": -0.393617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273196, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2499900, "relative_activity": 1.590768, "balance": 0.721894, "dry_up": 1.365252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102019, "annualized_volatility": 0.6891, "from_high_reference": -0.545161, "from_low_reference": 0.305556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.671667, "fair_value_reference": 1.348974, "structural_low": 1.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008547, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.019104, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.405172, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.034264, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.787037, "worst_return": -0.215686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038724, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.367568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.436464, "active": false 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.850738, "energy": 81.489544, "activity_lines": [ 1.308, 1.362, 1.483048, 1.609376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 1503300, "typical_volume": 1672530.0, "trend": 1.728333, "fair_value": 1.347981, "relative_strength": -37.931181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.781636, "energy": 80.274324, "activity_lines": [ 1.258667, 1.316, 1.441238, 1.571957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.18, "volume": 1815200, "typical_volume": 1595230.0, "trend": 1.705667, "fair_value": 1.347917, "relative_strength": -37.42909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.642826, "energy": 79.802112, "activity_lines": [ 1.226, 1.280545, 1.405857, 1.536581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.17, "volume": 2763600, "typical_volume": 1651725.0, "trend": 1.688, "fair_value": 1.347628, "relative_strength": -37.555345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.755325, "energy": 77.889703, "activity_lines": [ 1.197333, 1.249636, 1.373905, 1.502022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 2499900, "typical_volume": 1571505.0, "trend": 1.671667, "fair_value": 1.348974, "relative_strength": -27.103033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.224225, "energy": 53.170533, "activity_lines": [ 1.257333, 1.268909, 1.368333, 1.484086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }