{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97454a7c-4d09-4b5f-b630-3ec3a63f4b78", "symbol": "SRU", "name": "CSOP iEdge S-REIT Leaders Index ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.824, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.395, "architecture_energy": 70.972, "architecture_maturity": 44.633, "architecture_confidence": 95.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 16.75, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 56.3, "downward_expansion": 90.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.570904, 0.571731, 0.574708, 0.577895 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.584518, "distance_from_trend": -0.024837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.535041, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.28231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065574, "excess_performance": -0.220409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40100, "relative_activity": 0.310403, "balance": 0.487602, "dry_up": 0.141491, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007549, "annualized_volatility": 0.138174, "from_high_reference": -0.076175, "from_low_reference": 0.023339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.584518, "fair_value_reference": 0.535041, "structural_low": 0.557, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.004289, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.005979, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.11883, "worst_return": -0.09694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007737, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017513, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108806, "worst_return": -0.026711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122957, "worst_return": -0.046277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.126048, "energy": 57.541431, "activity_lines": [ 0.57346, 0.574002, 0.576789, 0.581062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.57, "volume": 33015, "typical_volume": 151419.55, "trend": 0.586547, "fair_value": 0.534487, "relative_strength": -17.460187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.950555, "energy": 49.738776, "activity_lines": [ 0.572483, 0.573118, 0.576033, 0.579965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 127189.95, "trend": 0.585549, "fair_value": 0.534759, "relative_strength": -17.670035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.300283, "energy": 64.43256, "activity_lines": [ 0.571609, 0.572324, 0.575354, 0.578898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 40100, "typical_volume": 129186.95, "trend": 0.584518, "fair_value": 0.535041, "relative_strength": -18.28231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.395039, "energy": 70.971879, "activity_lines": [ 0.570904, 0.571731, 0.574708, 0.577895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }