{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97466352-39db-4563-aab5-9b8e095db7a5", "symbol": "CTEX", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST S&P KENSHO CLEANTECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.066, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.116, "architecture_energy": 56.555, "architecture_maturity": 10.964, "architecture_confidence": 80.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.25, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 26.8, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 71.08, "downward_expansion": 56.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.013333, 37.117765, 39.48265, 39.215275 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.6031, "trend_reference": 38.997897, "distance_from_trend": -0.087051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.637674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.47087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101043, "excess_performance": -0.226668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3139, "relative_activity": 0.358141, "balance": 0.693829, "dry_up": 0.496052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113829, "annualized_volatility": 0.35121, "from_high_reference": -0.308678, "from_low_reference": 0.510357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.997897, "fair_value_reference": 26.637674, "structural_low": 31.3004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.168928, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.070091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168928, "worst_return": 0.168928, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.174146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174146, "worst_return": 0.174146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.586905, "energy": 30.17999, "activity_lines": [ 38.757293, 40.971858, 40.993846, 40.142452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.7994, "volume": 2605, "typical_volume": 9193.55, "trend": 39.18112, "fair_value": 26.568018, "relative_strength": -12.531867, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.393324, "energy": 40.647202, "activity_lines": [ 36.678887, 39.372331, 40.43221, 39.789138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.7382, "volume": 7957, "typical_volume": 9202.55, "trend": 39.05506, "fair_value": 26.592671, "relative_strength": -13.8734, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.2584, "energy": 57.571298, "activity_lines": [ 35.300627, 37.961845, 39.864439, 39.437982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.6031, "volume": 3139, "typical_volume": 8764.7, "trend": 38.997897, "fair_value": 26.637674, "relative_strength": -12.47087, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.116311, "energy": 56.55513, "activity_lines": [ 35.013333, 37.117765, 39.48265, 39.215275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }