{ "ticker": { "uuid": "974e81a6-593f-4a1f-a6b9-b615cec4baa4", "symbol": "LWEA", "name": "WisdomTree Wheat 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.185, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.616, "architecture_energy": 54.118, "architecture_maturity": 11.658, "architecture_confidence": 75.754, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.29, "rotation_up": 61.31, "upward_expansion": 82.09, "deceleration": 49.11, "rotation_down": 13.71, "downward_expansion": 13.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.229933, 3.123791, 3.053683, 3.006337 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.101, "trend_reference": 2.896167, "distance_from_trend": 0.070726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.17158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256637, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.505586, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.279027, "excess_performance": 0.108135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.279027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.856858, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43076, "relative_activity": 0.547889, "balance": 0.856858, "dry_up": 1.469858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1166, "annualized_volatility": 0.531195, "from_high_reference": -0.190339, "from_low_reference": 0.434652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.896167, "fair_value_reference": 4.17158, "structural_low": 2.339, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.08997, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116965, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.210746, "worst_return": -0.319643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.116438, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.168232, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270423, "worst_return": -0.389038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.350608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.353204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143455, "worst_return": -0.438793, "sufficient": false }, { 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3.040069, 2.97701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0645, "volume": 162133, "typical_volume": 80154.05, "trend": 2.870167, "fair_value": 4.205003, "relative_strength": 0.006231, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.110201, "energy": 53.932251, "activity_lines": [ 3.265733, 3.105845, 3.044876, 2.991444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.101, "volume": 43076, "typical_volume": 78621.7, "trend": 2.896167, "fair_value": 4.17158, "relative_strength": -1.505586, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.615737, "energy": 54.117677, "activity_lines": [ 3.229933, 3.123791, 3.053683, 3.006337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }