{ "ticker": { "uuid": "974ec76d-ec23-44ab-9d6e-b31dc75193c4", "symbol": "TLCO", "name": "iShares MSCI Glob Telecom Serv", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.261, "architecture_energy": 15.46, "architecture_maturity": 23.118, "architecture_confidence": 55.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 30.32, "upward_expansion": 22.41, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 37.46, "downward_expansion": 36.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.013667, 6.009, 6.077676, 6.109804 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.119, "trend_reference": 6.093567, "distance_from_trend": 0.004174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.69849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.332843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021025, "excess_performance": -0.149867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.881306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66030, "relative_activity": 2.049377, "balance": 3.881306, "dry_up": 0.866593, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025155, "annualized_volatility": 0.146601, "from_high_reference": -0.050435, "from_low_reference": 0.124403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.093567, "fair_value_reference": 5.69849, "structural_low": 5.784, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020514, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 5.1828, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 5.2106, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"close": 5.978, "volume": 5050, "typical_volume": 29348.3, "trend": 6.067933, "fair_value": 5.692204, "relative_strength": -11.792828, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.814955, "energy": 57.872564, "activity_lines": [ 5.9588, 6.027273, 6.098267, 6.11554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.938, "volume": 8268, "typical_volume": 29056.05, "trend": 6.077967, "fair_value": 5.694523, "relative_strength": -12.67123, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.233361, "energy": 41.928565, "activity_lines": [ 5.9528, 5.9984, 6.078429, 6.107157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.119, "volume": 66030, "typical_volume": 32219.55, "trend": 6.093567, "fair_value": 5.69849, "relative_strength": -12.332843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.260793, "energy": 15.460278, "activity_lines": [ 6.013667, 6.009, 6.077676, 6.109804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }