{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9750bf50-7bfc-463e-8e32-214fda371635", "symbol": "3013", "name": "Chenming Electronic Tech. Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.993, "architecture_energy": 68.967, "architecture_maturity": 25.646, "architecture_confidence": 81.753, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.43, "rotation_up": 10.93, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 70.56, "downward_expansion": 88.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.320001, 87.764231, 96.554842, 99.500326 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 82.900002, "trend_reference": 103.05518, "distance_from_trend": -0.195577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 100.019016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.508477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.225725, "excess_performance": -0.571457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.475085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.450718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3316989, "relative_activity": 0.206982, "balance": 1.450718, "dry_up": 0.366187, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140418, "annualized_volatility": 0.518576, "from_high_reference": -0.437604, "from_low_reference": 0.175887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.05518, "fair_value_reference": 100.019016, "structural_low": 70.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.028471, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.267327, "worst_return": -0.060748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.487952, "worst_return": -0.168502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113944, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054161, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.464949, "worst_return": -0.199586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 99.456565, "relative_strength": -46.960778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.489896, "energy": 75.852494, "activity_lines": [ 84.485997, 92.602267, 100.115598, 102.193301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 85.300003, "volume": 5171150, "typical_volume": 16820849.0, "trend": 104.342165, "fair_value": 99.741842, "relative_strength": -47.650588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.653617, "energy": 74.811677, "activity_lines": [ 83.760001, 90.072253, 98.401235, 100.883691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 82.900002, "volume": 3316989, "typical_volume": 16025472.9, "trend": 103.05518, "fair_value": 100.019016, "relative_strength": -47.508477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.993074, "energy": 68.967422, "activity_lines": [ 83.320001, 87.764231, 96.554842, 99.500326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }