{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9758e0cb-e42d-45c8-97cf-358034aeb157", "symbol": "HDFCAMC", "name": "HDFC Asset Management Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 87.003, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.789, "architecture_energy": 13.141, "architecture_maturity": 18.906, "architecture_confidence": 76.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.75, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 44.62, "deceleration": 80.66, "rotation_down": 36.25, "downward_expansion": 31.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 2584.593327, 2624.143612, 2629.149957, 2603.902743 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2545.0, "trend_reference": 2577.776571, "distance_from_trend": -0.012715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2123.887638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.231659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043803, "excess_performance": -9.4e-05, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2863922, "relative_activity": 0.724254, "balance": 0.262038, "dry_up": 1.133978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065598, "annualized_volatility": 0.342404, "from_high_reference": -0.123544, "from_low_reference": 0.179119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2577.776571, "fair_value_reference": 2123.887638, "structural_low": 2158.391559, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003773, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.003431, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.197152, "worst_return": -0.142555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009005, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001841, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.307169, "worst_return": -0.136992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526941, 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2574.740389, "fair_value": 2105.831532, "relative_strength": -0.7171, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.209555, "energy": 19.293485, "activity_lines": [ 2644.466618, 2642.318124, 2630.710047, 2603.205746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2615.800049, "volume": 2688014, "typical_volume": 4126456.55, "trend": 2575.256209, "fair_value": 2115.32027, "relative_strength": 1.109924, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.408188, "energy": 13.665473, "activity_lines": [ 2625.199984, 2639.082866, 2633.981821, 2605.854757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2545.0, "volume": 2863922, "typical_volume": 3954304.55, "trend": 2577.776571, "fair_value": 2123.887638, "relative_strength": -2.231659, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.789215, "energy": 13.141342, "activity_lines": [ 2584.593327, 2624.143612, 2629.149957, 2603.902743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }