{ "ticker": { "uuid": "975f460a-d476-4d08-9e89-fdf0216ef451", "symbol": "00633L", "name": "Fubon SSE180 Leveraged 2X Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.334, "architecture_energy": 12.7, "architecture_maturity": 29.009, "architecture_confidence": 72.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.56, "rotation_up": 23.21, "upward_expansion": 37.93, "deceleration": 78.28, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 38.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.658667, 49.990545, 50.692476, 50.170451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.75, "trend_reference": 49.577333, "distance_from_trend": 0.023653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.029615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.283438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050072, "excess_performance": -0.329239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007492, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14698150, "relative_activity": 1.059906, "balance": 0.951103, "dry_up": 1.359837, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069435, "annualized_volatility": 0.267486, "from_high_reference": -0.096975, "from_low_reference": 0.301282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.577333, "fair_value_reference": 40.029615, "structural_low": 43.360001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.000498, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.034758, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.070858, "worst_return": -0.078646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065338, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.092586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.008395, "worst_return": -0.139833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.171069, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197078, "worst_return": -0.258843, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052333, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.158661, "energy": 18.570639, "activity_lines": [ 50.790665, 51.544726, 51.027047, 50.279397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.400002, "volume": 24931652, "typical_volume": 14609075.75, "trend": 49.584333, "fair_value": 39.79859, "relative_strength": -29.748645, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.718629, "energy": 29.522933, "activity_lines": [ 49.144666, 50.543999, 50.692999, 50.068193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.5, "volume": 17490182, "typical_volume": 13880176.7, "trend": 49.626667, "fair_value": 39.883013, "relative_strength": -24.757212, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.325457, "energy": 19.397805, "activity_lines": [ 49.278667, 50.392363, 50.747047, 50.127268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.119999, "volume": 18309654, "typical_volume": 13841876.9, "trend": 49.574, "fair_value": 39.964103, "relative_strength": -25.341004, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.844338, "energy": 17.953176, "activity_lines": [ 49.142666, 50.028909, 50.646618, 50.09458 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.75, "volume": 14698150, "typical_volume": 13867405.8, "trend": 49.577333, "fair_value": 40.029615, "relative_strength": -24.283438, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.334485, "energy": 12.699931, "activity_lines": [ 49.658667, 49.990545, 50.692476, 50.170451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }