{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97642118-6643-4d35-a147-bff56fcf0a90", "symbol": "GENDED", "name": "UBS Global Gender Equality UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.72, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.216, "architecture_energy": 80.907, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.045, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.63, "rotation_up": 80.28, "upward_expansion": 96.36, "deceleration": 40.06, "rotation_down": 10.79, "downward_expansion": 18.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.769599, 19.540982, 19.193962, 18.955385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.889999, "trend_reference": 18.686692, "distance_from_trend": 0.064394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.144755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.873485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086208, "excess_performance": -0.084684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038649, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.26792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5063, "relative_activity": 0.872172, "balance": 2.26792, "dry_up": 0.919458, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022249, "annualized_volatility": 0.122088, "from_high_reference": -0.016564, "from_low_reference": 0.205591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.686692, "fair_value_reference": 16.144755, "structural_low": 17.542, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.004754, "positive_rate": 0.585366, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.008901, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.072854, "worst_return": -0.054185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.020875, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.000727, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.071387, "worst_return": -0.031464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.068435, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.022527, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159954, "worst_return": -0.063076, "sufficient": true }, { 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18.884343, 18.716756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.556, "volume": 6586, "typical_volume": 5834.4, "trend": 18.559946, "fair_value": 16.057898, "relative_strength": -4.273518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.872913, "energy": 77.257367, "activity_lines": [ 19.463734, 19.271309, 18.971048, 18.784726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.945999, "volume": 4359, "typical_volume": 5834.3, "trend": 18.630833, "fair_value": 16.101185, "relative_strength": -2.937491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.307091, "energy": 82.594781, "activity_lines": [ 19.6536, 19.422982, 19.089628, 18.874149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.889999, "volume": 5063, "typical_volume": 5805.05, "trend": 18.686692, "fair_value": 16.144755, "relative_strength": -5.873485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.21624, "energy": 80.907278, "activity_lines": [ 19.769599, 19.540982, 19.193962, 18.955385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }