{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9767af1a-0ae0-45f1-bfa1-a45d66ed9c71", "symbol": "FRP", "name": "FRP Advisory Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 91.324, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.642, "architecture_energy": 7.853, "architecture_maturity": 23.006, "architecture_confidence": 45.565, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 25.28, "deceleration": 40.47, "rotation_down": 24.81, "downward_expansion": 52.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.3, 114.4, 114.465295, 115.461712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 120.0, "trend_reference": 118.750211, "distance_from_trend": 0.010525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 128.962415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069496, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.956202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100977, "excess_performance": -0.167255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9759547, "relative_activity": 2.544529, "balance": 0.727368, "dry_up": 1.670926, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043226, "annualized_volatility": 0.275088, "from_high_reference": -0.205112, "from_low_reference": 0.173582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.750211, "fair_value_reference": 128.962415, "structural_low": 102.251032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.029595, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.148212, "worst_return": -0.063433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079016, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.024094, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.232352, "worst_return": -0.239433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032093, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019109, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.243386, "worst_return": -0.216718, 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-0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14539, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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"direction": -38.871572, "energy": 23.939253, "activity_lines": [ 114.833333, 114.503985, 114.911641, 117.782569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.5, "volume": 1999668, "typical_volume": 3190114.85, "trend": 121.597246, "fair_value": 129.114285, "relative_strength": -20.010645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.814391, "energy": 42.573624, "activity_lines": [ 112.866667, 113.56345, 114.287277, 116.930109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.0, "volume": 5470716, "typical_volume": 3370949.2, "trend": 120.431364, "fair_value": 129.118295, "relative_strength": -20.744948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.053221, "energy": 58.983358, "activity_lines": [ 111.233333, 112.690909, 113.717573, 116.117383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.0, "volume": 5847203, "typical_volume": 3520052.0, "trend": 119.948742, "fair_value": 129.117554, "relative_strength": -16.387184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.457417, "energy": 37.023753, "activity_lines": [ 112.466667, 113.227273, 113.907339, 115.831489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.5, "volume": 4557888, "typical_volume": 3500415.75, "trend": 119.282803, "fair_value": 128.99354, "relative_strength": -18.748515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.492453, "energy": 32.331778, "activity_lines": [ 112.8, 113.236364, 113.88515, 115.415441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.0, "volume": 9759547, "typical_volume": 3835502.05, "trend": 118.750211, "fair_value": 128.962415, "relative_strength": -13.956202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.641879, "energy": 7.852791, "activity_lines": [ 115.3, 114.4, 114.465295, 115.461712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }