{ "ticker": { "uuid": "976b2c80-35f9-4629-8851-c40e973b2b9c", "symbol": "XVLU", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Value Factor Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.3, "architecture_energy": 44.029, "architecture_maturity": 72.569, "architecture_confidence": 93.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.6, "rotation_up": 33.79, "upward_expansion": 61.97, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.968667, 51.34227, 49.910766, 47.362609 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 51.639999, "trend_reference": 44.151513, "distance_from_trend": 0.169609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.540022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.690896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.080286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.333553, "excess_performance": 0.213132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.690896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033025, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.333553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55600, "relative_activity": 0.289787, "balance": 1.243412, "dry_up": 0.569411, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039509, "annualized_volatility": 0.217129, "from_high_reference": -0.044235, "from_low_reference": 0.77334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.151513, "fair_value_reference": 30.540022, "structural_low": 35.773245, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.011769, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.008718, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.137972, "worst_return": -0.040257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007786, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017236, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.451529, "worst_return": -0.102773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069537, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.003277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211854, "worst_return": -0.070727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065726, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096943, "worst_return": -0.054589, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.098745, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.213503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.239123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027662, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.302645, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 6350.0, "trend": 22.070214, "fair_value": 21.36241, "relative_strength": 2.625092, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", 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51.830002, "volume": 141800, "typical_volume": 224500.0, "trend": 42.179304, "fair_value": 29.821632, "relative_strength": 23.996575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.586912, "energy": 66.823588, "activity_lines": [ 52.26652, 51.535739, 47.961424, 45.34775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.68, "volume": 226000, "typical_volume": 230380.0, "trend": 42.661743, "fair_value": 29.995373, "relative_strength": 18.324181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.082297, "energy": 58.154004, "activity_lines": [ 51.339443, 51.391872, 48.438946, 45.831666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.380001, "volume": 87300, "typical_volume": 218990.0, "trend": 43.197542, "fair_value": 30.178621, "relative_strength": 21.253852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.153604, "energy": 51.76888, "activity_lines": [ 51.158667, 51.502012, 49.024681, 46.394134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.25, "volume": 68100, "typical_volume": 199110.0, "trend": 43.681097, "fair_value": 30.354624, "relative_strength": 18.359347, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.304227, "energy": 44.779904, "activity_lines": [ 50.736001, 51.312545, 49.432845, 46.849132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.639999, "volume": 55600, "typical_volume": 191865.0, "trend": 44.151513, "fair_value": 30.540022, "relative_strength": 17.080286, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.299769, "energy": 44.028505, "activity_lines": [ 50.968667, 51.34227, 49.910766, 47.362609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }