{ "ticker": { "uuid": "976c6514-b164-4b27-afcc-5db430a7b580", "symbol": "DYA", "name": "dynaCERT Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.137, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.252, "architecture_energy": 62.157, "architecture_maturity": 9.69, "architecture_confidence": 83.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.08, "rotation_up": 14.29, "upward_expansion": 28.51, "deceleration": 49.15, "rotation_down": 70.16, "downward_expansion": 55.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.108667, 0.114818, 0.123238, 0.121624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.116167, "distance_from_trend": -0.096126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.149712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.838455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166667, "excess_performance": 0.046245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298651, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273651, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.084463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240224, "relative_activity": 0.403998, "balance": 0.084463, "dry_up": 0.492843, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10989, "annualized_volatility": 0.699825, "from_high_reference": -0.382353, "from_low_reference": 0.3125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.116167, "fair_value_reference": 0.149712, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055676, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107143, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027444, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026316, "worst_return": -0.028571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.165789, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.131579, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.282331, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.495743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078947, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.18, "volume": 355337, "typical_volume": 567787.9, "trend": 0.2065, "fair_value": 0.308333, "relative_strength": -13.724917, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", 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21.485211, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.132818, 0.12931, 0.121505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.125, "volume": 2288, "typical_volume": 711217.4, "trend": 0.1125, "fair_value": 0.153333, "relative_strength": -5.809841, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.121794, "energy": 19.477014, "activity_lines": [ 0.125667, 0.130364, 0.129619, 0.122376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.125, "volume": 214308, "typical_volume": 672974.45, "trend": 0.1135, "fair_value": 0.1525, "relative_strength": -5.260444, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.096301, "energy": 12.399472, "activity_lines": [ 0.125333, 0.128545, 0.129714, 0.123183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.115, "volume": 251470, "typical_volume": 656023.9, "trend": 0.114667, "fair_value": 0.151731, "relative_strength": -11.97567, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.38347, "energy": 10.190665, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.125182, 0.128738, 0.12328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 511077, "typical_volume": 665067.9, "trend": 0.115333, "fair_value": 0.151026, "relative_strength": -15.342163, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.770466, "energy": 23.880833, "activity_lines": [ 0.117333, 0.121636, 0.127238, 0.122978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.105, "volume": 169441, "typical_volume": 601236.4, "trend": 0.115667, "fair_value": 0.150321, "relative_strength": -17.997027, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.542886, "energy": 56.839134, "activity_lines": [ 0.112333, 0.117909, 0.125238, 0.122312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.105, "volume": 240224, "typical_volume": 594617.3, "trend": 0.116167, "fair_value": 0.149712, "relative_strength": -19.838455, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.25232, "energy": 62.157373, "activity_lines": [ 0.108667, 0.114818, 0.123238, 0.121624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }