{ "ticker": { "uuid": "977a3e03-931c-4190-9a12-9e288c9477c7", "symbol": "EGBN", "name": "Eagle Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.256, "architecture_energy": 21.742, "architecture_maturity": 49.35, "architecture_confidence": 57.629, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.67, "rotation_up": 34.55, "upward_expansion": 62.67, "deceleration": 66.47, "rotation_down": 20.94, "downward_expansion": 8.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.761351, 27.792593, 27.405006, 26.979903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.71, "trend_reference": 26.506396, "distance_from_trend": 0.045408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.0709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.402366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005104, "excess_performance": -0.182349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034024, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1168365, "relative_activity": 0.829402, "balance": 0.946154, "dry_up": 1.065803, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068485, "annualized_volatility": 0.283815, "from_high_reference": -0.053943, "from_low_reference": 0.84504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.506396, "fair_value_reference": 22.0709, "structural_low": 23.49086, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007965, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.033705, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.26538, "worst_return": -0.179938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081401, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.035903, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.206539, "worst_return": -0.261605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31169, "worst_return": -0.443127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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27.557652, 26.875318, 26.413292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.860359, "volume": 1211096, "typical_volume": 1427857.85, "trend": 25.639581, "fair_value": 21.975321, "relative_strength": 1.76187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.804739, "energy": 34.199235, "activity_lines": [ 27.716813, 27.5219, 26.924779, 26.503872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.380172, "volume": 1449170, "typical_volume": 1417946.6, "trend": 25.842456, "fair_value": 22.006762, "relative_strength": 8.152887, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.131696, "energy": 26.031931, "activity_lines": [ 27.529506, 27.567195, 27.02203, 26.616168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.429795, "volume": 1965166, "typical_volume": 1447807.7, "trend": 26.084649, "fair_value": 22.027208, "relative_strength": 13.338082, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.773062, "energy": 24.777805, "activity_lines": [ 27.769396, 27.785147, 27.210005, 26.783093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.740043, "volume": 1422820, "typical_volume": 1438714.35, "trend": 26.314843, "fair_value": 22.049522, "relative_strength": 9.311802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.224567, "energy": 20.566131, "activity_lines": [ 27.724049, 27.805692, 27.317245, 26.889893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.71, "volume": 1168365, "typical_volume": 1408684.3, "trend": 26.506396, "fair_value": 22.0709, "relative_strength": 3.402366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.25647, "energy": 21.742156, "activity_lines": [ 27.761351, 27.792593, 27.405006, 26.979903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }