{ "ticker": { "uuid": "977edf07-313d-4988-90c2-be2b50a89e30", "symbol": "TSK", "name": "TUSKERMIN FPO [TSK]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.117, "architecture_energy": 30.836, "architecture_maturity": 24.694, "architecture_confidence": 69.171, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.02, "rotation_up": 15.75, "upward_expansion": 13.79, "deceleration": 57.87, "rotation_down": 53.15, "downward_expansion": 66.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.080533, 0.081691, 0.088752, 0.088602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.077, "trend_reference": 0.0902, "distance_from_trend": -0.146341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.101619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.703167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114943, "excess_performance": -0.178648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125545, "read": "Falling" 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0.062, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.018862, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.055871, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.738095, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.150213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.161779, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.25641, "worst_return": -0.505882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.833333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.799949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 0.0902, "fair_value": 0.101619, "relative_strength": -44.703167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.116519, "energy": 30.83599, "activity_lines": [ 0.080533, 0.081691, 0.088752, 0.088602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }