{ "ticker": { "uuid": "977ee651-bdf4-4254-89ab-81d9b85a74a7", "symbol": "HK", "name": "Amundi MSCI China ESG Selection Extra UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.912, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.478, "architecture_energy": 39.017, "architecture_maturity": 91.349, "architecture_confidence": 71.329, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.71, "rotation_up": 67.39, "upward_expansion": 37.3, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 23.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.987333, 23.390727, 23.3325, 23.477462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.525, "trend_reference": 23.876333, "distance_from_trend": 0.027168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.295112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.296529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033116, "excess_performance": -0.204008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688928, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5911, "relative_activity": 0.251226, "balance": 0.688928, "dry_up": 0.242354, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030361, "annualized_volatility": 0.191623, "from_high_reference": -0.121327, "from_low_reference": 0.155205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.876333, "fair_value_reference": 21.295112, "structural_low": 21.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028941, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048695, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.111593, "worst_return": -0.057837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.046798, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208813, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.046798, "worst_return": -0.046798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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23.438699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.525, "volume": 5911, "typical_volume": 23528.6, "trend": 23.876333, "fair_value": 21.295112, "relative_strength": -15.296529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.477776, "energy": 39.017249, "activity_lines": [ 23.987333, 23.390727, 23.3325, 23.477462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }