{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9780179c-f6ee-42dc-84e1-61e7acf6d43e", "symbol": "AMRC", "name": "Ameresco Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.895, "architecture_energy": 49.943, "architecture_maturity": 15.524, "architecture_confidence": 86.473, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.45, "rotation_up": 12.3, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 42.88, "rotation_down": 66.28, "downward_expansion": 84.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.262667, 24.296727, 26.578, 27.195978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.65, "trend_reference": 28.312667, "distance_from_trend": -0.094045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.86, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.758068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17044, "excess_performance": -0.296065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045048, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6080711, "relative_activity": 2.058676, "balance": 0.618477, "dry_up": 1.184205, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193639, "annualized_volatility": 0.666571, "from_high_reference": -0.429112, "from_low_reference": 0.395918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.312667, "fair_value_reference": 26.86, "structural_low": 18.375, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008003, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.029205, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.581006, "worst_return": -0.478568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034521, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.012492, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.671825, "worst_return": -0.600792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043273, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.143778, "worst_return": -0.441685, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -28.400981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.507574, "energy": 63.789125, "activity_lines": [ 24.919333, 26.854364, 27.94681, 28.347785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.75, "volume": 2001588, "typical_volume": 2758831.1, "trend": 28.787333, "fair_value": 27.202692, "relative_strength": -32.237275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.379637, "energy": 69.588387, "activity_lines": [ 23.575333, 25.605091, 27.37, 27.875634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.07, "volume": 3262094, "typical_volume": 2789787.6, "trend": 28.467333, "fair_value": 27.017051, "relative_strength": -35.136441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.602204, "energy": 71.248167, "activity_lines": [ 22.464, 24.437273, 26.747238, 27.377742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.65, "volume": 6080711, "typical_volume": 2953700.35, "trend": 28.312667, "fair_value": 26.86, "relative_strength": -23.758068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.894793, "energy": 49.942652, "activity_lines": [ 23.262667, 24.296727, 26.578, 27.195978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }