{ "ticker": { "uuid": "978059f8-a709-4cab-9049-1e2c8fb15007", "symbol": "UGARSUGAR", "name": "The Ugar Sugar Works Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.177, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.218, "architecture_energy": 42.182, "architecture_maturity": 26.569, "architecture_confidence": 75.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.58, "rotation_up": 57.84, "upward_expansion": 68.8, "deceleration": 51.05, "rotation_down": 12.38, "downward_expansion": 14.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.756894, 40.870526, 40.954494, 40.492685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.0, "trend_reference": 39.748683, "distance_from_trend": 0.132113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.310592, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.902006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.205465, "excess_performance": 0.249174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132113, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009741, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.277811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10902, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046711, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.475052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2195061, "relative_activity": 2.309422, "balance": 1.475052, "dry_up": 1.186498, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058562, "annualized_volatility": 0.225787, "from_high_reference": -0.078813, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.748683, "fair_value_reference": 62.310592, "structural_low": 33.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007823, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.019136, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.181772, "worst_return": -0.176018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024679, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046669, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.301642, "worst_return": -0.104059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.304598, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.264729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.556377, "worst_return": -0.136394, 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40.079706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.893593, "volume": 495324, "typical_volume": 905938.7, "trend": 39.745875, "fair_value": 63.88566, "relative_strength": -0.865761, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.908468, "energy": 10.74625, "activity_lines": [ 39.816165, 40.055158, 40.564601, 40.085932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.624245, "volume": 403509, "typical_volume": 861309.85, "trend": 39.649016, "fair_value": 63.299581, "relative_strength": 0.98553, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.196686, "energy": 7.135878, "activity_lines": [ 39.795164, 39.902907, 40.504023, 40.078085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.689999, "volume": 1417079, "typical_volume": 882475.65, "trend": 39.614683, "fair_value": 62.710108, "relative_strength": 1.239991, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.049357, "energy": 10.970154, "activity_lines": [ 40.130464, 39.982171, 40.532925, 40.145245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.0, "volume": 2195061, "typical_volume": 950480.6, "trend": 39.748683, "fair_value": 62.310592, "relative_strength": 10.902006, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.217763, "energy": 42.182025, "activity_lines": [ 41.756894, 40.870526, 40.954494, 40.492685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }