{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97829368-a224-4da1-bd0d-5055bb98f855", "symbol": "SQRL", "name": "Squirrel Media, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.813, "architecture_energy": 75.735, "architecture_maturity": 22.061, "architecture_confidence": 85.619, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 11.76, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 73.66, "downward_expansion": 93.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.148, 2.190909, 2.279476, 2.318688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.13, "trend_reference": 2.368667, "distance_from_trend": -0.10076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.950192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.410057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108787, "excess_performance": -0.233217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.134707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20480, "relative_activity": 0.232901, "balance": 1.134707, "dry_up": 0.853217, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052365, "annualized_volatility": 0.288607, "from_high_reference": -0.268041, "from_low_reference": 0.148248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.368667, "fair_value_reference": 1.950192, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.017758, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.156463, "worst_return": -0.202128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.061818, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.082567, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.225806, "worst_return": -0.334862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.050211, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.06322, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.877551, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.229152, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.265459, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.564626, "worst_return": -0.271523, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.414966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -18.47518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.08761, "energy": 64.094196, "activity_lines": [ 2.258667, 2.305818, 2.361476, 2.383054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.17, "volume": 88007, "typical_volume": 84963.6, "trend": 2.399, "fair_value": 1.951026, "relative_strength": -19.124527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.630752, "energy": 66.340314, "activity_lines": [ 2.223333, 2.275091, 2.341381, 2.367828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.11, "volume": 78779, "typical_volume": 83975.75, "trend": 2.39, "fair_value": 1.950705, "relative_strength": -22.37762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.129257, "energy": 75.389488, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.236545, 2.31719, 2.349183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.17, "volume": 112843, "typical_volume": 87998.2, "trend": 2.382667, "fair_value": 1.950513, "relative_strength": -20.671311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.522437, "energy": 69.898657, "activity_lines": [ 2.166667, 2.214727, 2.299857, 2.334989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.13, "volume": 20480, "typical_volume": 87934.5, "trend": 2.368667, "fair_value": 1.950192, "relative_strength": -23.410057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.813493, "energy": 75.734751, "activity_lines": [ 2.148, 2.190909, 2.279476, 2.318688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }