{ "ticker": { "uuid": "978305e8-64a6-45ad-a5cf-4ce21f1435b0", "symbol": "ORIO", "name": "Orion Digital Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.462, "architecture_energy": 89.086, "architecture_maturity": 88.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.277, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.28, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 84.2, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.933333, 1.032909, 1.153571, 1.234516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.93, "trend_reference": 1.350667, "distance_from_trend": -0.311451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.88641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.748082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407643, "excess_performance": -0.528065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.507, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.517481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.097054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35200, "relative_activity": 0.448151, "balance": 0.097054, "dry_up": 0.961551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108354, "annualized_volatility": 0.400211, "from_high_reference": -0.678201, "from_low_reference": 0.044944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.350667, "fair_value_reference": 1.88641, "structural_low": 0.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.064327, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.087042, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.721311, "worst_return": -0.35503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.112777, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.123581, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.555556, "worst_return": -0.603851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.151021, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.229524, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.358974, "worst_return": -0.624021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.333495, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.417352, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506024, "worst_return": -0.800261, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.692308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.758824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.322835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.403846, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.36, "volume": 134500, "typical_volume": 100176.55, "trend": 2.843667, "fair_value": 11.407436, "relative_strength": -20.13269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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"down", "direction": -61.089625, "energy": 45.127347, "activity_lines": [ 1.254, 1.272182, 1.32481, 1.380452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.08, "volume": 92300, "typical_volume": 104635.0, "trend": 1.431667, "fair_value": 1.938526, "relative_strength": -46.987162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.257426, "energy": 58.671493, "activity_lines": [ 1.196667, 1.232364, 1.296857, 1.356645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.99, "volume": 119500, "typical_volume": 96590.0, "trend": 1.412667, "fair_value": 1.924679, "relative_strength": -50.209869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.707278, "energy": 86.229256, "activity_lines": [ 1.118667, 1.182545, 1.262333, 1.328151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.91, "volume": 88600, "typical_volume": 92805.0, "trend": 1.392667, "fair_value": 1.911474, "relative_strength": -53.331682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.730335, "energy": 94.813601, "activity_lines": [ 1.030667, 1.124909, 1.223143, 1.29572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.89, "volume": 58800, "typical_volume": 82990.0, "trend": 1.376, "fair_value": 1.898141, "relative_strength": -53.274926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.152093, "energy": 94.126972, "activity_lines": [ 0.964667, 1.071455, 1.185143, 1.26329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.93, "volume": 35200, "typical_volume": 78545.0, "trend": 1.350667, "fair_value": 1.88641, "relative_strength": -51.748082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.46229, "energy": 89.086286, "activity_lines": [ 0.933333, 1.032909, 1.153571, 1.234516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }