{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97839ced-508d-48b6-bd57-3139501e37d1", "symbol": "ENI", "name": "Eni S.p.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.67, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.639, "architecture_energy": 39.691, "architecture_maturity": 33.053, "architecture_confidence": 62.456, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.59, "rotation_up": 66.64, "upward_expansion": 68.46, "deceleration": 62.42, "rotation_down": 11.97, "downward_expansion": 14.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.016, 22.297091, 22.412659, 22.200422 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.275, "trend_reference": 21.324802, "distance_from_trend": 0.091452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.620745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.591916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.430817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.333863, "excess_performance": 0.269223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.591916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.154308, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.333863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61236, "relative_activity": 0.832349, "balance": 1.399672, "dry_up": 0.77766, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055247, "annualized_volatility": 0.329361, "from_high_reference": -0.05856, "from_low_reference": 0.697614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.324802, "fair_value_reference": 14.620745, "structural_low": 17.275319, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031121, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.13579, "worst_return": -0.020034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013739, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002906, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056644, "worst_return": -0.060074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017808, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032451, "worst_return": -0.023747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.049722, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182008, 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"relative_strength": 16.658606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.973262, "energy": 29.83584, "activity_lines": [ 20.973333, 21.559727, 22.154549, 21.698172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.959999, "volume": 46099, "typical_volume": 82896.3, "trend": 20.806362, "fair_value": 14.464652, "relative_strength": 21.382226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.894859, "energy": 16.317049, "activity_lines": [ 21.647333, 21.724909, 22.210464, 21.852941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.99, "volume": 62351, "typical_volume": 77624.25, "trend": 21.072676, "fair_value": 14.545842, "relative_strength": 23.125092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.687102, "energy": 33.062335, "activity_lines": [ 22.576666, 22.082454, 22.350709, 22.058337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.275, "volume": 61236, "typical_volume": 73570.1, "trend": 21.324802, "fair_value": 14.620745, "relative_strength": 15.430817, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.639457, "energy": 39.690652, "activity_lines": [ 23.016, 22.297091, 22.412659, 22.200422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }