{ "ticker": { "uuid": "978ace8b-313d-4741-81ba-6cc860280948", "symbol": "XMM", "name": "iShares MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.396, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.372, "architecture_energy": 26.205, "architecture_maturity": 64.086, "architecture_confidence": 80.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.28, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 56.23, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 32.93, "downward_expansion": 19.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.163334, 36.580546, 36.234774, 35.419326 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.630001, "trend_reference": 34.440247, "distance_from_trend": 0.063581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.244872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.679733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125691, "excess_performance": 0.00527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933071, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3000, "relative_activity": 0.329489, "balance": 0.933071, "dry_up": 1.068094, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035284, "annualized_volatility": 0.215021, "from_high_reference": -0.051482, "from_low_reference": 0.207171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.440247, "fair_value_reference": 29.244872, "structural_low": 30.940001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024131, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.008178, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.042308, "worst_return": -0.02118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025181, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.016951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055441, "worst_return": -0.003075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080278, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193655, "worst_return": 0.030054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074904, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017094, "active": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.43, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 9370.0, "trend": 33.862494, "fair_value": 28.959813, "relative_strength": 2.776969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.563963, "energy": 76.257064, "activity_lines": [ 37.604264, 37.113969, 35.821391, 34.93364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.439999, "volume": 20600, "typical_volume": 9395.0, "trend": 33.998219, "fair_value": 29.028608, "relative_strength": -2.366422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.91548, "energy": 44.077722, "activity_lines": [ 36.868542, 36.896551, 35.898641, 35.035415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.130001, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 9180.0, "trend": 34.158914, "fair_value": 29.098487, "relative_strength": -0.60445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.358316, "energy": 32.12162, "activity_lines": [ 36.480667, 36.806569, 36.032082, 35.172949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.650002, "volume": 10100, "typical_volume": 9155.0, "trend": 34.302247, "fair_value": 29.167853, "relative_strength": -1.3415, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.865485, "energy": 24.926533, "activity_lines": [ 36.098667, 36.605205, 36.096952, 35.269148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.630001, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 9105.0, "trend": 34.440247, "fair_value": 29.244872, "relative_strength": -1.679733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.371954, "energy": 26.205363, "activity_lines": [ 36.163334, 36.580546, 36.234774, 35.419326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }