{ "ticker": { "uuid": "979f09a2-c899-4d1b-9241-69adac7b552b", "symbol": "LG9", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.956, "architecture_energy": 23.99, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.404, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.61, "rotation_up": 37.11, "upward_expansion": 23.3, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 18.79, "downward_expansion": 57.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.275999, 17.997636, 18.219809, 18.517613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.809999, "trend_reference": 19.060333, "distance_from_trend": -0.013134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.429253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.556869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069733, "excess_performance": -0.224568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.379722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.336729, "balance": 1.379722, "dry_up": 1.569156, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025273, "annualized_volatility": 0.199065, "from_high_reference": -0.180749, "from_low_reference": 0.10582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.060333, "fair_value_reference": 17.429253, "structural_low": 17.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.022974, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.041444, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.223404, "worst_return": -0.127208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.083828, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.100855, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.182945, "worst_return": -0.126344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04228, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.074123, "worst_return": -0.192007, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 17.507333, 17.857636, 18.353095, 18.780903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.15, "volume": 2658, "typical_volume": 741.75, "trend": 19.288333, "fair_value": 17.390406, "relative_strength": -22.121585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.843886, "energy": 60.959298, "activity_lines": [ 17.695333, 17.843091, 18.301857, 18.702903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.879999, "volume": 480, "typical_volume": 707.75, "trend": 19.208667, "fair_value": 17.400983, "relative_strength": -23.885389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.810252, "energy": 52.453528, "activity_lines": [ 17.788666, 17.804, 18.232762, 18.612043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.059999, "volume": 390, "typical_volume": 587.2, "trend": 19.125, "fair_value": 17.412714, "relative_strength": -23.196384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.095654, "energy": 30.958534, "activity_lines": [ 17.939999, 17.827091, 18.187, 18.537935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.809999, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 593.95, "trend": 19.060333, "fair_value": 17.429253, "relative_strength": -20.556869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.955866, "energy": 23.989807, "activity_lines": [ 18.275999, 17.997636, 18.219809, 18.517613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }