{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97a451f5-ec8d-4006-929b-81a3ebba8420", "symbol": "PRCO-B", "name": "Precio Fishbone AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.988, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.997, "architecture_energy": 56.562, "architecture_maturity": 38.482, "architecture_confidence": 86.381, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.78, "rotation_up": 15.75, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 36.51, "rotation_down": 63.3, "downward_expansion": 84.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.993333, 18.230909, 18.570861, 18.880094 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.9, "trend_reference": 19.505025, "distance_from_trend": -0.031019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.952343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.724492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126707, "excess_performance": -0.188201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.717586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15207, "relative_activity": 2.588976, "balance": 1.717586, "dry_up": 1.301511, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055759, "annualized_volatility": 0.242659, "from_high_reference": -0.211906, "from_low_reference": 0.174977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.505025, "fair_value_reference": 21.952343, "structural_low": 16.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.024691, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.01738, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.253247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.086984, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.084109, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.031325, "worst_return": -0.136461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.097297, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.096089, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.058878, "worst_return": -0.211087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 18.546667, 18.696364, 18.889162, 19.236506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.9, "volume": 3754, "typical_volume": 4869.7, "trend": 19.633685, "fair_value": 21.98733, "relative_strength": -23.414337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.549578, "energy": 67.654895, "activity_lines": [ 17.933333, 18.338182, 18.684233, 19.053295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.6, "volume": 5744, "typical_volume": 5114.65, "trend": 19.550938, "fair_value": 21.967262, "relative_strength": -20.679562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.724901, "energy": 68.796431, "activity_lines": [ 17.686667, 18.145454, 18.560196, 18.92209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.9, "volume": 15207, "typical_volume": 5873.75, "trend": 19.505025, "fair_value": 21.952343, "relative_strength": -15.724492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.997199, "energy": 56.561852, "activity_lines": [ 17.993333, 18.230909, 18.570861, 18.880094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }