{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97a4e690-fad9-4dff-9e76-e6b77622739a", "symbol": "BBW", "name": "Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.192, "architecture_energy": 17.145, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.831, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.71, "rotation_up": 30.7, "upward_expansion": 21.35, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 21.86, "downward_expansion": 55.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.917333, 33.922109, 34.459562, 36.351408 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 36.86, "trend_reference": 40.921765, "distance_from_trend": -0.099257, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.509834, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.544498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.331068, "excess_performance": -0.456693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14588, "read": "Falling" 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29.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033037, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.022845, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.313578, "worst_return": -0.1517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.368175, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.322136, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.808972, "worst_return": -0.19887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.233624, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.617076, "worst_return": 0.159919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.983742, "energy": 56.197393, "activity_lines": [ 32.553248, 33.264794, 35.026234, 38.563084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.13, "volume": 1853825, "typical_volume": 2036105.35, "trend": 43.751611, "fair_value": 37.293284, "relative_strength": -36.715426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.757923, "energy": 47.418011, "activity_lines": [ 33.1766, 33.254938, 34.755903, 37.899755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.7, "volume": 1157736, "typical_volume": 1995725.15, "trend": 42.809212, "fair_value": 37.360177, "relative_strength": -36.558857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.871074, "energy": 35.730864, "activity_lines": [ 33.508, 33.239013, 34.512443, 37.251263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.92, "volume": 1201859, "typical_volume": 1864319.15, "trend": 41.918549, "fair_value": 37.430311, "relative_strength": -36.260529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.684164, "energy": 27.291714, "activity_lines": [ 33.808667, 33.28796, 34.329934, 36.677766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.86, "volume": 1684339, "typical_volume": 1791200.95, "trend": 40.921765, "fair_value": 37.509834, "relative_strength": -32.544498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.191662, "energy": 17.144558, "activity_lines": [ 34.917333, 33.922109, 34.459562, 36.351408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }