{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97a641a1-c05e-4db9-9b06-2a4e73c142bd", "symbol": "BTC", "name": "M\u00e9lanion BTC Equities Universe UCITS ETF EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.342, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.072, "architecture_energy": 32.641, "architecture_maturity": 38.553, "architecture_confidence": 56.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.04, "rotation_up": 14.26, "upward_expansion": 16.32, "deceleration": 61.51, "rotation_down": 63.08, "downward_expansion": 41.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.197934, 16.047128, 16.6046, 16.131742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.769, "trend_reference": 15.761067, "distance_from_trend": -0.062944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.756282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.044565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058103, "excess_performance": 0.004791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.128248, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2431, "relative_activity": 0.24275, "balance": 3.128248, "dry_up": 0.346152, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120174, "annualized_volatility": 0.535578, "from_high_reference": -0.475626, "from_low_reference": 0.279809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.761067, "fair_value_reference": 13.756282, "structural_low": 11.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017282, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006058, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.265894, "worst_return": -0.275232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022665, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024291, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.342986, "worst_return": -0.440932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100682, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.154275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.509673, "worst_return": -0.124592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.359714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.273039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.740746, "worst_return": -0.021319, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.262706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183358, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.458193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002753, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.175887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.250494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001899, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.803, "volume": 27414, "typical_volume": 27527.45, "trend": 6.676833, "fair_value": 11.412835, "relative_strength": 1.999073, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.082001, "volume": 4197, "typical_volume": 12205.15, "trend": 15.864967, "fair_value": 13.674436, "relative_strength": -8.53556, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.027535, "energy": 25.07467, "activity_lines": [ 16.026201, 16.978892, 16.840848, 16.260489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.943, "volume": 3370, "typical_volume": 10568.3, "trend": 15.8426, "fair_value": 13.714333, "relative_strength": -16.264509, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.725547, "energy": 28.057594, "activity_lines": [ 15.546267, 16.497764, 16.733448, 16.201007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.769, "volume": 2431, "typical_volume": 10014.4, "trend": 15.761067, "fair_value": 13.756282, "relative_strength": -19.044565, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.071815, "energy": 32.640762, "activity_lines": [ 15.197934, 16.047128, 16.6046, 16.131742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }