{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97a970f6-1396-4852-bbd1-e711ae09572a", "symbol": "ACA", "name": "Cr\u00e9dit Agricole S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.957, "architecture_energy": 95.507, "architecture_maturity": 27.796, "architecture_confidence": 78.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.85, "rotation_up": 85.7, "upward_expansion": 97.63, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.51, "downward_expansion": 21.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.906666, 18.336727, 17.520019, 17.087152 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.605, "trend_reference": 16.721415, "distance_from_trend": 0.172449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.440947, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.925561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173381, "excess_performance": 0.12007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.129256, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.757269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18550784, "relative_activity": 0.949203, "balance": 2.757269, "dry_up": 0.989668, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032144, "annualized_volatility": 0.250362, "from_high_reference": -0.009098, "from_low_reference": 0.370991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.721415, "fair_value_reference": 13.440947, "structural_low": 14.529009, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006694, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.002337, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.120091, "worst_return": -0.291121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.04149, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.009118, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.189126, "worst_return": -0.210178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088537, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.091465, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.265917, "worst_return": -0.189932, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 16.619241, "fair_value": 13.375822, "relative_strength": 13.781833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.127065, "energy": 92.849621, "activity_lines": [ 18.421666, 17.968909, 17.238509, 16.894522 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.605, "volume": 18550784, "typical_volume": 19543542.6, "trend": 16.721415, "fair_value": 13.440947, "relative_strength": 12.925561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.956888, "energy": 95.506919, "activity_lines": [ 18.906666, 18.336727, 17.520019, 17.087152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }