{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97aa1a14-e17b-45ba-a00e-8e7ec59d8c52", "symbol": "EMEQ", "name": "MACQUARIE FOCUSED EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.942, "architecture_energy": 23.702, "architecture_maturity": 69.239, "architecture_confidence": 91.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.62, "rotation_up": 18.41, "upward_expansion": 52.42, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 34.96, "downward_expansion": 18.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.613293, 65.040769, 64.370757, 61.023458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 62.415, "trend_reference": 56.587167, "distance_from_trend": 0.102989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.30375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.673156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.625623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.312066, "excess_performance": 0.124613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.673156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156256, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.312066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632638, "relative_activity": 0.733494, "balance": 0.771171, "dry_up": 0.844334, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10279, "annualized_volatility": 0.463119, "from_high_reference": -0.207026, "from_low_reference": 1.099446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.587167, "fair_value_reference": 37.30375, "structural_low": 42.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.2274, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2274, "worst_return": 0.2274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.636986, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.381129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.636986, "worst_return": 0.636986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.1, "volume": 619286, "typical_volume": 903078.45, "trend": 55.28649, "fair_value": 36.802569, "relative_strength": 23.825254, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.244493, "energy": 23.573299, "activity_lines": [ 64.873907, 66.79066, 63.965464, 60.185414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.8094, "volume": 796365, "typical_volume": 909553.85, "trend": 55.948227, "fair_value": 37.052637, "relative_strength": 21.402747, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.480172, "energy": 23.260314, "activity_lines": [ 63.290313, 65.845662, 64.17839, 60.606247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.415, "volume": 632638, "typical_volume": 862499.75, "trend": 56.587167, "fair_value": 37.30375, "relative_strength": 15.625623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.942107, "energy": 23.702092, "activity_lines": [ 62.613293, 65.040769, 64.370757, 61.023458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }