{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97ae2d1c-19ca-4b9a-9744-8325dca40238", "symbol": "002843", "name": "Bichamp Cutting Technology (Hunan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.904, "architecture_energy": 78.145, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.607, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.83, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 75.26, "downward_expansion": 91.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.951333, 18.786364, 21.045429, 21.79843 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.6, "trend_reference": 22.251333, "distance_from_trend": -0.253977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.473133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.688827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086909, "excess_performance": -0.094308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.550334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.226988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47678964, "relative_activity": 0.583854, "balance": 0.226988, "dry_up": 0.766205, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194439, "annualized_volatility": 0.783288, "from_high_reference": -0.457162, "from_low_reference": 0.155989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.251333, "fair_value_reference": 20.473133, "structural_low": 14.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.029497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015881, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.67756, "worst_return": -0.181233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.203322, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.025278, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.075965, "worst_return": -0.270825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.162675, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.050168, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.637609, "worst_return": -0.105561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-46.05636, "energy": 33.983167, "activity_lines": [ 21.129333, 21.723455, 23.007953, 23.01471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.870001, "volume": 78233264, "typical_volume": 94984603.25, "trend": 22.532, "fair_value": 20.515694, "relative_strength": -24.286591, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.151755, "energy": 42.537989, "activity_lines": [ 19.626, 20.686364, 22.369095, 22.647333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.14, "volume": 58139441, "typical_volume": 85772399.65, "trend": 22.366, "fair_value": 20.484786, "relative_strength": -30.317889, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.728534, "energy": 77.594962, "activity_lines": [ 17.900667, 19.503637, 21.618143, 22.17043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.6, "volume": 47678964, "typical_volume": 81662501.9, "trend": 22.251333, "fair_value": 20.473133, "relative_strength": -26.688827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.904275, "energy": 78.144884, "activity_lines": [ 16.951333, 18.786364, 21.045429, 21.79843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }