{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97ae48fc-e471-47fa-ba3b-7f715328e28e", "symbol": "IROYAL", "name": "IROYAL_INTERROYAL ENGINEERING", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.478, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.146, "architecture_energy": 18.872, "architecture_maturity": 21.464, "architecture_confidence": 63.46, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.73, "rotation_up": 39.08, "upward_expansion": 36.86, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 20.65, "downward_expansion": 38.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.766667, 4.721818, 4.669444, 4.736699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.64, "trend_reference": 4.798129, "distance_from_trend": -0.032956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.97932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166028, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.91712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071875, "excess_performance": -0.2642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1934000, "relative_activity": 1.203807, "balance": 1.175535, "dry_up": 1.832149, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052056, "annualized_volatility": 0.285132, "from_high_reference": -0.221803, "from_low_reference": 0.542159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.798129, "fair_value_reference": 3.97932, "structural_low": 4.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"relative_strength": -11.072347, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.493003, "energy": 22.369032, "activity_lines": [ 4.589333, 4.560364, 4.644774, 4.723115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.98, "volume": 4764500, "typical_volume": 1619305.0, "trend": 4.765385, "fair_value": 3.952556, "relative_strength": -5.039202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.817841, "energy": 10.818754, "activity_lines": [ 4.72, 4.643636, 4.664031, 4.738241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.98, "volume": 3186300, "typical_volume": 1659535.0, "trend": 4.784615, "fair_value": 3.963972, "relative_strength": -5.599231, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.311323, "energy": 26.634863, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.716727, 4.68469, 4.752087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 1889100, "typical_volume": 1675245.0, "trend": 4.793901, "fair_value": 3.97206, "relative_strength": -10.120269, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.476714, "energy": 21.404628, "activity_lines": [ 4.812, 4.727273, 4.679212, 4.746628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.64, "volume": 1934000, "typical_volume": 1606570.0, "trend": 4.798129, "fair_value": 3.97932, "relative_strength": -10.91712, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.145938, "energy": 18.87228, "activity_lines": [ 4.766667, 4.721818, 4.669444, 4.736699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }