{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97b1b519-5a66-4b2a-914c-5db339fee3a1", "symbol": "MNPR", "name": "Monopar Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.119, "architecture_energy": 81.271, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 81.11, "upward_expansion": 92.86, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 9.76, "downward_expansion": 17.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.526667, 103.359091, 86.851405, 78.459892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 119.21, "trend_reference": 70.277833, "distance_from_trend": 0.696267, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.435551, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.565367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 50.176622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.064242, "excess_performance": 0.876789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.696267, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.565367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.179668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.501766, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.576683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.064242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.594524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1396124, "relative_activity": 1.456635, "balance": 1.594524, "dry_up": 1.582357, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11533, "annualized_volatility": 0.568045, "from_high_reference": -0.044945, "from_low_reference": 3.085332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.277833, "fair_value_reference": 33.435551, "structural_low": 50.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.035054, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024716, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 1.500739, "worst_return": -0.508243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.257345, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.191027, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.623338, "worst_return": -0.649745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.185868, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.087214, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 4.957164, "worst_return": -0.624962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 42.457557, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.799484, "energy": 95.30818, "activity_lines": [ 92.127333, 80.136273, 70.153762, 66.632559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.12, "volume": 1348910, "typical_volume": 874301.7, "trend": 65.622833, "fair_value": 31.343284, "relative_strength": 52.759043, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.846383, "energy": 94.502446, "activity_lines": [ 101.213333, 87.070909, 74.613952, 69.659237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.87, "volume": 1337123, "typical_volume": 905713.75, "trend": 66.992833, "fair_value": 32.024085, "relative_strength": 51.242247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.04075, "energy": 90.928509, "activity_lines": [ 106.459333, 92.913818, 78.686929, 72.513892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.35, "volume": 1984338, "typical_volume": 960663.35, "trend": 68.404167, "fair_value": 32.694141, "relative_strength": 46.118087, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.882281, "energy": 86.345768, "activity_lines": [ 108.372, 97.560364, 82.366286, 75.182097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.21, "volume": 1396124, "typical_volume": 958458.45, "trend": 70.277833, "fair_value": 33.435551, "relative_strength": 50.176622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.119183, "energy": 81.271292, "activity_lines": [ 112.526667, 103.359091, 86.851405, 78.459892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }