{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97b25eb8-d370-41d5-a731-483ecb8389e5", "symbol": "300819", "name": "Jiangsu Jujie Microfiber Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.875, "architecture_energy": 54.541, "architecture_maturity": 10.675, "architecture_confidence": 62.3, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.92, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 25.45, "deceleration": 51.05, "rotation_down": 69.3, "downward_expansion": 52.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.2, 53.916562, 59.78182, 58.209683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.75, "trend_reference": 54.679668, "distance_from_trend": -0.108444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.40132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.997843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.502043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.291733, "excess_performance": 0.284333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.997843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.949636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.13502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.885792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291733, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22933643, "relative_activity": 0.814186, "balance": 1.161322, "dry_up": 0.809814, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245588, "annualized_volatility": 0.991924, "from_high_reference": -0.468953, "from_low_reference": 1.212891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.679668, "fair_value_reference": 24.40132, "structural_low": 37.150002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.000877, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.162147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.000877, "worst_return": 0.000877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.097283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.110701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097283, "worst_return": 0.097283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.030789, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030789, "worst_return": -0.030789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.359082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.453168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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33.33775, "activity_lines": [ 71.46406, 71.615751, 65.476535, 59.879834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.0, "volume": 25032750, "typical_volume": 31399770.8, "trend": 52.694001, "fair_value": 23.584076, "relative_strength": 33.662189, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.042251, "energy": 27.113204, "activity_lines": [ 68.06, 69.327853, 65.353296, 60.351274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.02, "volume": 23705140, "typical_volume": 29961976.85, "trend": 53.399334, "fair_value": 23.807387, "relative_strength": 18.475878, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.724303, "energy": 8.783477, "activity_lines": [ 61.314667, 65.003884, 64.143868, 60.049726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.07, "volume": 23422736, "typical_volume": 28609894.2, "trend": 53.984334, "fair_value": 23.997486, "relative_strength": 5.412401, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.49773, "energy": 32.314872, "activity_lines": [ 53.71, 60.359111, 62.514915, 59.383317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.25, "volume": 21180414, "typical_volume": 28028005.25, "trend": 54.207001, "fair_value": 24.176475, "relative_strength": 1.954864, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.84599, "energy": 41.633704, "activity_lines": [ 47.370667, 56.084374, 60.77182, 58.561747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.75, "volume": 22933643, "typical_volume": 28167555.4, "trend": 54.679668, "fair_value": 24.40132, "relative_strength": 13.502043, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.8754, "energy": 54.540779, "activity_lines": [ 46.2, 53.916562, 59.78182, 58.209683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }