{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97b36464-4e00-4def-afb2-56c2236b35f2", "symbol": "SNG", "name": "Siren Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.298, "architecture_energy": 65.922, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 29.22, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.68, "rotation_down": 58.12, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.045267, 0.046691, 0.054248, 0.06246 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.045, "trend_reference": 0.0748, "distance_from_trend": -0.398396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.07023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.977057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.540816, "excess_performance": -0.604522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.398396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359247, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.44792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.489771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.540816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 709913, "relative_activity": 0.521307, "balance": 0.299332, "dry_up": 0.332488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.632807, "from_high_reference": -0.678571, "from_low_reference": 0.097561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0748, "fair_value_reference": 0.07023, "structural_low": 0.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.065215, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.08606, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.373621, "worst_return": -0.271605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.205917, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.194661, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.644769, "worst_return": -0.4125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.34483, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.332239, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.233577, "worst_return": -0.389473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.305556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.048267, 0.052127, 0.062624, 0.071103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.049, "volume": 319467, "typical_volume": 1485599.05, "trend": 0.080133, "fair_value": 0.071097, "relative_strength": -41.939112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.091126, "energy": 75.4889, "activity_lines": [ 0.048267, 0.050545, 0.0605, 0.068996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 210514, "typical_volume": 1472082.8, "trend": 0.078533, "fair_value": 0.07081, "relative_strength": -42.892169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.249666, "energy": 66.894055, "activity_lines": [ 0.048133, 0.049345, 0.058519, 0.066923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.041, "volume": 571227, "typical_volume": 1418738.2, "trend": 0.076633, "fair_value": 0.070507, "relative_strength": -52.204971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.179729, "energy": 72.376627, "activity_lines": [ 0.0458, 0.047509, 0.056071, 0.064501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.045, "volume": 709913, "typical_volume": 1361794.15, "trend": 0.0748, "fair_value": 0.07023, "relative_strength": -48.977057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.298428, "energy": 65.921748, "activity_lines": [ 0.045267, 0.046691, 0.054248, 0.06246 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }