{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97b498d8-c7a2-41cf-bb9d-cfb176a6575c", "symbol": "SYR", "name": "Syrah Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.436, "architecture_energy": 45.572, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.049, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.02, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 5.58, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 50.01, "downward_expansion": 78.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.109, 0.111182, 0.111405, 0.123432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.151686, "distance_from_trend": -0.307779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.330564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.682361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -54.349835, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.511628, "excess_performance": -0.575334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.307779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.682361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024041, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.543498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026696, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.511628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9612109, "relative_activity": 0.401674, "balance": 0.934351, "dry_up": 0.648622, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134432, "annualized_volatility": 0.694289, "from_high_reference": -0.801887, "from_low_reference": 0.082474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.151686, "fair_value_reference": 0.330564, "structural_low": 0.097, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.059637, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.56701, "worst_return": -0.510638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.146332, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.306773, "worst_return": -0.506812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.267416, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.323887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.641434, "worst_return": -0.722071, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -51.03394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.16329, "energy": 43.612306, "activity_lines": [ 0.112333, 0.112782, 0.112982, 0.130574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 7267813, "typical_volume": 25496685.35, "trend": 0.159019, "fair_value": 0.33457, "relative_strength": -51.45989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.387539, "energy": 38.714316, "activity_lines": [ 0.111667, 0.112527, 0.112288, 0.126917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.105, "volume": 9612109, "typical_volume": 23930143.3, "trend": 0.151686, "fair_value": 0.330564, "relative_strength": -54.349835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.435918, "energy": 45.572233, "activity_lines": [ 0.109, 0.111182, 0.111405, 0.123432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }