{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "97b642db-7007-41f8-a225-e64654fe7a58",
    "symbol": "EMD",
    "name": "Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 94.219,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 39.517,
    "architecture_energy": 18.282,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.359,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.688,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.99,
        "rotation_up": 33.21,
        "upward_expansion": 60.04,
        "deceleration": 81.79,
        "rotation_down": 22.67,
        "downward_expansion": 12.38
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.531502,
        10.542607,
        10.504901,
        10.448716
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.6,
    "trend_reference": 10.424112,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.016873,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.588813,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234164,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.117754,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.007374,
    "excess_performance": -0.132999,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016873,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013477,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.234164,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04173,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071178,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026807,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007374,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.811879,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 703207,
      "relative_activity": 0.732605,
      "balance": 0.811879,
      "dry_up": 0.921666,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02573,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.172857,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029791,
      "from_low_reference": 0.138643
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.424112,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.588813,
      "structural_low": 9.428404,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.003676,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020056,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.045091,
        "worst_return": -0.082423,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.014479,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.044947,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.136374,
        "worst_return": -0.119605,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.06411,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.076071,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.18218,
        "worst_return": -0.23332,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.195123,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.11772,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.227633,
        "worst_return": -0.371856,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008658,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.003616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032843,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013904,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
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        "stage": 3,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.47,
        "volume": 905755,
        "typical_volume": 994446.8,
        "trend": 10.411595,
        "fair_value": 8.538551,
        "relative_strength": -4.277965,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.538179,
        "energy": 32.555256,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.553245,
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          10.43318
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.47,
        "volume": 758239,
        "typical_volume": 978163.9,
        "trend": 10.417599,
        "fair_value": 8.563619,
        "relative_strength": -5.183928,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.535759,
        "energy": 16.886675,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.515586,
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          10.436949
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.6,
        "volume": 703207,
        "typical_volume": 959871.75,
        "trend": 10.424112,
        "fair_value": 8.588813,
        "relative_strength": -7.117754,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.516516,
        "energy": 18.281534,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.531502,
          10.542607,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}