{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97b8e907-8537-48e1-ab79-f830aba03c47", "symbol": "EMA", "name": "Eminence Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.974, "architecture_energy": 38.051, "architecture_maturity": 35.845, "architecture_confidence": 92.087, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.23, "rotation_up": 21.44, "upward_expansion": 4.37, "deceleration": 54.84, "rotation_down": 51.49, "downward_expansion": 77.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.040733, 0.040982, 0.044157, 0.045723 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.0487, "distance_from_trend": -0.178645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.149878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.733117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.030448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.438706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.733117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 846499, "relative_activity": 2.148002, "balance": 0.872382, "dry_up": 1.033098, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155769, "annualized_volatility": 0.658928, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.290323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0487, "fair_value_reference": 0.149878, "structural_low": 0.031, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014583, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.003181, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.673913, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123357, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.120665, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.283333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.282609, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.353082, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.32, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.348148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"trend": 0.0509, "fair_value": 0.151885, "relative_strength": -37.130594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.864974, "energy": 61.9456, "activity_lines": [ 0.0404, 0.043145, 0.045814, 0.047566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 38864, "typical_volume": 394098.85, "trend": 0.050233, "fair_value": 0.151372, "relative_strength": -36.143106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.363262, "energy": 54.568639, "activity_lines": [ 0.0402, 0.042055, 0.045152, 0.046862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.042, "volume": 358458, "typical_volume": 391903.1, "trend": 0.049433, "fair_value": 0.150647, "relative_strength": -33.642707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.769603, "energy": 38.691291, "activity_lines": [ 0.040933, 0.041618, 0.044729, 0.046331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 846499, "typical_volume": 394086.7, "trend": 0.0487, "fair_value": 0.149878, "relative_strength": -38.030448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.973808, "energy": 38.051315, "activity_lines": [ 0.040733, 0.040982, 0.044157, 0.045723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }