{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97baee32-29a2-45cb-a7d5-f20fd63463c2", "symbol": "HMJD", "name": "HSBC MSCI JAPAN UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.345, "architecture_energy": 34.082, "architecture_maturity": 60.488, "architecture_confidence": 84.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.65, "rotation_up": 36.05, "upward_expansion": 59.03, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 26.94, "downward_expansion": 20.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.915094, 48.960935, 48.330698, 47.555259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.310001, "trend_reference": 46.618671, "distance_from_trend": 0.079181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.068759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321556, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.010842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110841, "excess_performance": -0.06005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.646772, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2867, "relative_activity": 0.381638, "balance": 4.646772, "dry_up": 0.741379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0284, "annualized_volatility": 0.215835, "from_high_reference": -0.009646, "from_low_reference": 0.304161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.618671, "fair_value_reference": 38.068759, "structural_low": 42.145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006648, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007265, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.052252, "worst_return": -0.118732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144086, "worst_return": -0.059231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044176, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.012116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100974, "worst_return": -0.068321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017459, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 7862.65, "trend": 45.741471, "fair_value": 37.615969, "relative_strength": -0.981932, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.235693, "energy": 84.96163, "activity_lines": [ 49.534949, 48.963097, 47.675702, 46.912554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.375328, "volume": 5723, "typical_volume": 7852.1, "trend": 45.946945, "fair_value": 37.72323, "relative_strength": -4.411547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.784119, "energy": 48.819641, "activity_lines": [ 48.896177, 48.765734, 47.741671, 47.017964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.481461, "volume": 5655, "typical_volume": 7929.9, "trend": 46.178208, "fair_value": 37.830927, "relative_strength": -2.069519, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.225148, "energy": 34.940893, "activity_lines": [ 48.607427, 48.763299, 47.912364, 47.181481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.060001, "volume": 8033, "typical_volume": 7833.3, "trend": 46.398235, "fair_value": 37.942175, "relative_strength": -3.582038, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.996315, "energy": 25.05391, "activity_lines": [ 48.326094, 48.661663, 48.023769, 47.302887 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.310001, "volume": 2867, "typical_volume": 7512.35, "trend": 46.618671, "fair_value": 38.068759, "relative_strength": -2.010842, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.344552, "energy": 34.082376, "activity_lines": [ 48.915094, 48.960935, 48.330698, 47.555259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }