{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97c1faa3-f35e-430d-a259-becb9081a6ea", "symbol": "DGSE", "name": "WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.932, "architecture_energy": 25.249, "architecture_maturity": 40.185, "architecture_confidence": 52.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.62, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 17.46, "deceleration": 67.3, "rotation_down": 59.01, "downward_expansion": 40.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.516, 20.758089, 20.86515, 20.761914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.834999, "trend_reference": 20.593277, "distance_from_trend": 0.011738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.073547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.868322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04496, "excess_performance": -0.125931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011738, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036659, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600352, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2938, "relative_activity": 0.905532, "balance": 0.600352, "dry_up": 0.712359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029213, "annualized_volatility": 0.16786, "from_high_reference": -0.042949, "from_low_reference": 0.144395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.593277, "fair_value_reference": 18.073547, "structural_low": 19.193532, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024086, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.002966, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.062369, "worst_return": -0.007477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066749, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.025674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080565, "worst_return": -0.016642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114529, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137053, "worst_return": 0.025399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 20.833063, 20.970095, 20.935519, 20.780442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.940001, "volume": 1428, "typical_volume": 3108.6, "trend": 20.547646, "fair_value": 18.038772, "relative_strength": -11.390042, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.072043, "energy": 31.373986, "activity_lines": [ 20.492333, 20.773274, 20.857233, 20.743375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.834999, "volume": 2938, "typical_volume": 3244.5, "trend": 20.593277, "fair_value": 18.073547, "relative_strength": -9.868322, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.932296, "energy": 25.248501, "activity_lines": [ 20.516, 20.758089, 20.86515, 20.761914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }