{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97c3312e-34e6-403d-ad32-e21a77481dcd", "symbol": "HLF", "name": "Herbalife Nutrition Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.53, "architecture_energy": 40.43, "architecture_maturity": 41.072, "architecture_confidence": 90.801, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.96, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 53.37, "rotation_down": 42.9, "downward_expansion": 74.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.282, 12.368182, 12.76081, 13.490473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.35, "trend_reference": 14.553333, "distance_from_trend": -0.151397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.793654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.547376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273102, "excess_performance": -0.398727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005082, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10816408, "relative_activity": 1.513809, "balance": 0.582334, "dry_up": 1.086364, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093876, "annualized_volatility": 0.607001, "from_high_reference": -0.394608, "from_low_reference": 0.633598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.553333, "fair_value_reference": 10.793654, "structural_low": 11.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.007563, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.008085, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.303396, "worst_return": -0.257216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.101077, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.089104, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.279104, "worst_return": -0.383454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.168961, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.15437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156545, "worst_return": -0.421287, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.323881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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14.251032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.15, "volume": 6920864, "typical_volume": 7163375.2, "trend": 14.769, "fair_value": 10.914167, "relative_strength": -6.282008, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.421745, "energy": 31.815393, "activity_lines": [ 12.78, 12.507273, 13.385952, 14.143161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.99, "volume": 9223453, "typical_volume": 7236407.35, "trend": 14.702333, "fair_value": 10.89609, "relative_strength": -13.316011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.791494, "energy": 33.538805, "activity_lines": [ 12.590667, 12.400909, 13.174286, 13.963871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.89, "volume": 5812437, "typical_volume": 7111391.75, "trend": 14.654333, "fair_value": 10.864872, "relative_strength": -13.586958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.2825, "energy": 35.565505, "activity_lines": [ 12.374667, 12.318545, 12.988952, 13.78243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.42, "volume": 5196666, "typical_volume": 6968909.7, "trend": 14.641, "fair_value": 10.825192, "relative_strength": -10.876008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.512183, "energy": 37.245612, "activity_lines": [ 12.336, 12.349636, 12.871143, 13.63828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.35, "volume": 10816408, "typical_volume": 7145158.7, "trend": 14.553333, "fair_value": 10.793654, "relative_strength": -14.547376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.530436, "energy": 40.429812, "activity_lines": [ 12.282, 12.368182, 12.76081, 13.490473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }