{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "97c68bf8-bbe2-4453-8a8d-0aed951dcc88",
    "symbol": "300905",
    "name": "Poly Plastic Masterbatch (SuZhou) Co.,Ltd",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 51.986,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -30.277,
    "architecture_energy": 67.366,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.504,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.318,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.26,
        "rotation_up": 14.12,
        "upward_expansion": 30.96,
        "deceleration": 49.05,
        "rotation_down": 74.0,
        "downward_expansion": 60.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.372666,
        42.695045,
        50.385323,
        49.028165
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 40.66,
    "trend_reference": 46.141463,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.118797,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.698907,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369074,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.277873,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.085424,
    "excess_performance": 0.078025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118797,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119348,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.369074,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.234829,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022779,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.653291,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085424,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.573587,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31252595,
      "relative_activity": 0.816272,
      "balance": 0.573587,
      "dry_up": 0.73446,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.176717,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.928806,
      "from_high_reference": -0.50763,
      "from_low_reference": 0.39342
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 46.141463,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.698907,
      "structural_low": 29.18,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.153943,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047612,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.204403,
        "worst_return": -0.365672,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.218845,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.101979,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.504018,
        "worst_return": 0.008797,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.488926,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.352189,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.553252,
        "worst_return": 0.227763,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.477439,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.209969,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.480168,
        "worst_return": 0.474711,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045802,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.206377,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.106954,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012567,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.104938,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.184463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.080771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034742,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.361313,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.11184,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-07-28",
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.862138,
        "energy": 42.867038,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 37436083.6,
        "trend": 45.74613,
        "fair_value": 29.438442,
        "relative_strength": -8.703815,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -40.50892,
        "energy": 59.745951,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.509998,
        "volume": 23069259,
        "typical_volume": 37536324.7,
        "trend": 45.860463,
        "fair_value": 29.551208,
        "relative_strength": -10.02894,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.218563,
        "energy": 72.441638,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 40.66,
        "volume": 31252595,
        "typical_volume": 38287000.65,
        "trend": 46.141463,
        "fair_value": 29.698907,
        "relative_strength": -2.277873,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.276672,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}