{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97d486e1-f8ef-44a7-b810-ad5d182e2fa0", "symbol": "GFRD", "name": "Galliford Try Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.622, "architecture_energy": 84.537, "architecture_maturity": 17.741, "architecture_confidence": 73.987, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.2, "rotation_up": 84.72, "upward_expansion": 96.6, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.27, "downward_expansion": 18.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 601.066667, 576.509091, 554.65, 546.447652 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 619.0, "trend_reference": 539.782806, "distance_from_trend": 0.146758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 379.162772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.632544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.030716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165863, "excess_performance": 0.114628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.632544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081373, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.100307, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000721, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1373983, "relative_activity": 1.130206, "balance": 1.000721, "dry_up": 1.990671, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055595, "annualized_volatility": 0.269429, "from_high_reference": -0.02057, "from_low_reference": 0.519601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 539.782806, "fair_value_reference": 379.162772, "structural_low": 468.98999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.015766, "positive_rate": 0.560976, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": 0.00667, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.162914, "worst_return": -0.164849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.055432, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.067909, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.276465, "worst_return": -0.031606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.214652, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.183019, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.313306, "worst_return": -0.001794, "sufficient": true }, { 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563.618182, 546.597619, 541.166835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 619.0, "volume": 1373983, "typical_volume": 1215693.05, "trend": 539.782806, "fair_value": 379.162772, "relative_strength": 10.030716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.622139, "energy": 84.537187, "activity_lines": [ 601.066667, 576.509091, 554.65, 546.447652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }