{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97d52068-c260-4af4-921e-ab81d4fc2ae6", "symbol": "1788", "name": "Hi-Clearance Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.384, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.907, "architecture_energy": 31.106, "architecture_maturity": 16.673, "architecture_confidence": 67.256, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.99, "rotation_up": 48.99, "upward_expansion": 74.87, "deceleration": 56.67, "rotation_down": 16.17, "downward_expansion": 3.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 130.2, 130.01865, 129.549791, 129.458715 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 130.5, "trend_reference": 129.411523, "distance_from_trend": 0.008411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 125.687894, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.968206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011628, "excess_performance": -0.429744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.529827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95335, "relative_activity": 0.593419, "balance": 1.529827, "dry_up": 0.721674, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015332, "annualized_volatility": 0.035718, "from_high_reference": -0.02974, "from_low_reference": 0.034447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.411523, "fair_value_reference": 125.687894, "structural_low": 126.154414, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.035417, "worst_return": -0.039286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004046, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058991, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.047101, "worst_return": -0.028571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10921, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.036232, "worst_return": -0.014493, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003597, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007299, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003846, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 121.139915, "volume": 106000, "typical_volume": 118650.0, "trend": 118.814706, "fair_value": 107.753324, "relative_strength": -6.975718, "stage": 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.383937, "energy": 14.724926, "activity_lines": [ 129.766667, 129.448062, 129.210909, 129.268053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.5, "volume": 142448, "typical_volume": 159275.0, "trend": 129.373043, "fair_value": 125.524865, "relative_strength": -28.738566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.154009, "energy": 7.322494, "activity_lines": [ 129.6, 129.517046, 129.236977, 129.27528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.0, "volume": 127762, "typical_volume": 157550.35, "trend": 129.374759, "fair_value": 125.578907, "relative_strength": -26.685568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.928631, "energy": 7.633677, "activity_lines": [ 129.7, 129.659225, 129.310541, 129.315728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 130.5, "volume": 98214, "typical_volume": 158743.65, "trend": 129.408949, "fair_value": 125.6334, "relative_strength": -27.342173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.954737, "energy": 15.502699, "activity_lines": [ 129.966667, 129.865508, 129.431479, 129.388325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 130.5, "volume": 95335, "typical_volume": 160653.85, "trend": 129.411523, "fair_value": 125.687894, "relative_strength": -28.968206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.907021, "energy": 31.106124, "activity_lines": [ 130.2, 130.01865, 129.549791, 129.458715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }