{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97dc0f6c-486f-42d2-875d-51aadfc61969", "symbol": "NTNX", "name": "Nutanix Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 10, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 79.643, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 65.943, "composite_score": 79.375, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.361, "architecture_energy": 81.865, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.314, "architecture_age_weeks": 4, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.361, "energy": 81.865, "maturity": 28.0, "confidence": 77.314, "confirmation": 66.967, "age_weeks": 4, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.77, "rotation_up": 79.64, "upward_expansion": 96.31, "deceleration": 39.46, "rotation_down": 11.8, "downward_expansion": 18.31 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 56.087333, "10": 53.832545, "20": 50.49, "30": 47.834602 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.268054, "10": 0.87638, "20": 0.859351, "30": 0.579961 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.686619, "fan_width_change_4": 0.68966, "fan_width_percentile": 0.826923, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.184869, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.352561, "price_acceptance": 1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.597308, "accepted_above": 1.0, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.125 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is building a base around a flattening 30-week trend.", "body": "The job of Stage 1 is repair: declining pressure must fade, relative strength must improve, and resistance must be absorbed before an advance is confirmed.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 80/100." }, "latest_close": 59.01, "sma_30": 45.425333, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.299055, "sma_30_slope": -0.02573, "fair_value": 57.105032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033359, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.261746, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": 0.551394, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 36.816975, "range_position_52": 0.516422, "returns": { "13": 0.385211, "26": 0.500381, "52": -0.181667 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.415061, "52": -0.396502 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 48.13, "2": 44.0, "3": 37.57, "4": 30.27 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.299055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.02573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.261746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.005514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.36817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.500381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.354458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13293465, "ratio_20": 0.750593, "up_down_ratio_13": 4.354458, "dry_up_ratio": 0.864492, "accumulation_weeks": 6, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 58.65, "low_26": 34.01, "depth": 0.420119, "compression": 0.590626, "breakout_distance": 0.006138 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.082919, "annualized_volatility": 0.466602, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.284033, "advance_from_52_low": 0.735078 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 58.65, "trend_reference": 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"Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071269, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.043315, "stage_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.286606, "worst_return": -0.045132, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.403678, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.361982, "stage_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.403678, "worst_return": 0.403678, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.315862, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.27632, "stage_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315862, "worst_return": 0.315862, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.604598, 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