{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97e02a5c-bef7-4fe6-b4e1-8fdecc69d432", "symbol": "603806", "name": "Hangzhou First Applied Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.934, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.783, "architecture_energy": 47.986, "architecture_maturity": 9.319, "architecture_confidence": 81.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.93, "rotation_up": 15.55, "upward_expansion": 8.13, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 59.51, "downward_expansion": 81.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.658667, 14.987273, 15.902175, 16.402416 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.61, "trend_reference": 16.721736, "distance_from_trend": -0.066484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.968347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.2515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074994, "excess_performance": -0.03179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157089661, "relative_activity": 0.793892, "balance": 1.088476, "dry_up": 0.898852, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123896, "annualized_volatility": 0.53169, "from_high_reference": -0.219526, "from_low_reference": 0.213134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.721736, "fair_value_reference": 15.968347, "structural_low": 13.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.010124, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.014382, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.234965, "worst_return": -0.193214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025392, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.041836, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.234454, "worst_return": -0.256805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06567, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.108796, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.066879, "worst_return": -0.281097, "sufficient": true 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[ 16.261333, 16.709303, 17.174056, 17.114804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.24, "volume": 183954791, "typical_volume": 207972167.3, "trend": 16.616213, "fair_value": 16.212532, "relative_strength": -11.343478, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.805423, "energy": 43.925796, "activity_lines": [ 15.557333, 16.180073, 16.868135, 16.96219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.83, "volume": 218858001, "typical_volume": 209879700.65, "trend": 16.618534, "fair_value": 16.13763, "relative_strength": -8.489948, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.320611, "energy": 58.135623, "activity_lines": [ 14.916667, 15.655423, 16.540582, 16.782434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.75, "volume": 167734497, "typical_volume": 208583166.55, "trend": 16.638691, "fair_value": 16.071011, "relative_strength": -10.148121, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.842328, "energy": 72.29548, "activity_lines": [ 14.315333, 15.209301, 16.225063, 16.597368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.67, "volume": 167750696, "typical_volume": 208042009.35, "trend": 16.663059, "fair_value": 16.012884, "relative_strength": -4.629247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.570395, "energy": 68.209683, "activity_lines": [ 14.272, 14.988182, 16.012519, 16.470356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.61, "volume": 157089661, "typical_volume": 197872723.9, "trend": 16.721736, "fair_value": 15.968347, "relative_strength": -1.2515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.783202, "energy": 47.985843, "activity_lines": [ 14.658667, 14.987273, 15.902175, 16.402416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }