{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97e43e96-ea9b-4837-a291-72cac815718b", "symbol": "ICG", "name": "ICG plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.634, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.303, "architecture_energy": 78.149, "architecture_maturity": 14.266, "architecture_confidence": 63.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.07, "rotation_up": 82.35, "upward_expansion": 94.02, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 8.87, "downward_expansion": 16.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1928.333333, 1859.084856, 1831.695583, 1793.424697 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2042.0, "trend_reference": 1770.538102, "distance_from_trend": 0.153322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1932.085808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.730207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.201572, "excess_performance": 0.150337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038495, "read": "Falling" 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1424.405631, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00074, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.029381, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.170447, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.063581, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.064808, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.238985, "worst_return": -0.239972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076084, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.095459, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.476534, "worst_return": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.595671, "energy": 14.675383, "activity_lines": [ 1796.666667, 1784.835923, 1780.069084, 1763.588856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1866.0, "volume": 6262052, "typical_volume": 5631300.4, "trend": 1777.75922, "fair_value": 1924.185939, "relative_strength": -9.851127, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.686457, "energy": 32.350083, "activity_lines": [ 1830.0, 1798.239002, 1792.43911, 1768.904762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1888.0, "volume": 7683229, "typical_volume": 5568987.1, "trend": 1772.181795, "fair_value": 1927.63268, "relative_strength": -9.353257, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.982538, "energy": 57.854575, "activity_lines": [ 1861.333333, 1814.558529, 1805.563793, 1776.017071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2042.0, "volume": 6053352, "typical_volume": 5474348.85, "trend": 1770.538102, "fair_value": 1932.085808, "relative_strength": -1.730207, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.302991, "energy": 78.149115, "activity_lines": [ 1928.333333, 1859.084856, 1831.695583, 1793.424697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }