{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97e76371-585c-4b7e-80eb-97beb8d052bd", "symbol": "VGER", "name": "Vanguard Germany All Cap UCITS ETF EUR Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.152, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.324, "architecture_energy": 31.169, "architecture_maturity": 35.365, "architecture_confidence": 52.679, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.72, "rotation_up": 46.3, "upward_expansion": 50.07, "deceleration": 31.55, "rotation_down": 32.58, "downward_expansion": 20.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.326666, 30.142373, 29.99468, 29.876448 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 31.17, "trend_reference": 29.911948, "distance_from_trend": 0.042058, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.744911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.649971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019142, "excess_performance": -0.032093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042058, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019142, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.803189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98128, "relative_activity": 1.1477, "balance": 1.803189, "dry_up": 0.94422, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033819, "annualized_volatility": 0.197012, "from_high_reference": -0.02291, "from_low_reference": 0.155729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.911948, "fair_value_reference": 25.744911, "structural_low": 26.969999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007214, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000322, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.055332, "worst_return": -0.046875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025676, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103079, "worst_return": -0.114831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059055, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005297, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.185446, "worst_return": -0.127337, "sufficient": 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-35.939216, "energy": 15.668291, "activity_lines": [ 29.782668, 29.884052, 29.742689, 29.776917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.674999, "volume": 47241, "typical_volume": 88736.35, "trend": 29.897171, "fair_value": 25.61103, "relative_strength": -7.390597, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.780358, "energy": 12.995987, "activity_lines": [ 29.711334, 29.840873, 29.759095, 29.761872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.407499, "volume": 117174, "typical_volume": 88168.2, "trend": 29.9044, "fair_value": 25.675001, "relative_strength": -5.992624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.785479, "energy": 5.921278, "activity_lines": [ 29.9185, 29.924843, 29.844217, 29.794796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.17, "volume": 98128, "typical_volume": 85499.7, "trend": 29.911948, "fair_value": 25.744911, "relative_strength": -3.649971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.324051, "energy": 31.169385, "activity_lines": [ 30.326666, 30.142373, 29.99468, 29.876448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }