{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97eaf194-bbe2-4943-a3f0-8a4b7beddf74", "symbol": "601717", "name": "ZCZL Industrial Technology Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.907, "architecture_energy": 44.127, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.211, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.39, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 20.05, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 40.8, "downward_expansion": 70.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.565333, 15.392067, 16.072546, 17.381048 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.82, "trend_reference": 19.377176, "distance_from_trend": -0.183576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.435846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.756142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.360032, "excess_performance": -0.316829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183576, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.251204, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91056791, "relative_activity": 1.100776, "balance": 1.251204, "dry_up": 1.24559, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071845, "annualized_volatility": 0.343811, "from_high_reference": -0.428675, "from_low_reference": 0.126781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.377176, "fair_value_reference": 15.435846, "structural_low": 14.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.04252, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.028188, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.175663, "worst_return": -0.161553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03259, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05539, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.089239, "worst_return": -0.292779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13728, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.044678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235849, "worst_return": -0.059565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.341413, "relative_strength": -26.135385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.635025, "energy": 79.550032, "activity_lines": [ 14.744667, 15.403705, 16.61705, 18.190889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.34, "volume": 123757758, "typical_volume": 81801033.0, "trend": 19.94851, "fair_value": 15.369283, "relative_strength": -23.94142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.693212, "energy": 64.814923, "activity_lines": [ 14.883333, 15.291808, 16.359263, 17.874383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.15, "volume": 106057481, "typical_volume": 82227472.1, "trend": 19.668176, "fair_value": 15.402686, "relative_strength": -20.177883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.463844, "energy": 58.958271, "activity_lines": [ 15.344667, 15.358378, 16.215571, 17.629318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.82, "volume": 91056791, "typical_volume": 82720535.25, "trend": 19.377176, "fair_value": 15.435846, "relative_strength": -23.756142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.90674, "energy": 44.126801, "activity_lines": [ 15.565333, 15.392067, 16.072546, 17.381048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }