{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97ec85a6-94e5-4106-9d07-b65b1ef92d7b", "symbol": "BCHN", "name": "Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.227, "architecture_energy": 16.096, "architecture_maturity": 61.338, "architecture_confidence": 76.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.97, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 45.36, "deceleration": 87.64, "rotation_down": 40.94, "downward_expansion": 30.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.020668, 155.342364, 156.267192, 151.432625 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 150.970001, "trend_reference": 145.959669, "distance_from_trend": 0.034327, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.812116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.232681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195707, "excess_performance": 0.024816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034327, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195707, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.527257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11136, "relative_activity": 0.891622, "balance": 1.527257, "dry_up": 1.145133, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074131, "annualized_volatility": 0.341926, "from_high_reference": -0.12471, "from_low_reference": 0.303038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 145.959669, "fair_value_reference": 105.812116, "structural_low": 118.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020128, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.008784, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.207841, "worst_return": -0.097297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048859, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019966, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.149663, "worst_return": -0.247143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177915, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.053697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.441575, "worst_return": -0.374124, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 11985.6, "trend": 145.226002, "fair_value": 104.67327, "relative_strength": -1.949864, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.929969, "energy": 22.769884, "activity_lines": [ 155.291336, 159.015274, 156.242859, 150.787271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.979996, "volume": 18024, "typical_volume": 12372.4, "trend": 145.721002, "fair_value": 105.237565, "relative_strength": -7.196983, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.702964, "energy": 18.752135, "activity_lines": [ 153.068668, 156.958182, 156.254858, 151.09398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.970001, "volume": 11136, "typical_volume": 12489.6, "trend": 145.959669, "fair_value": 105.812116, "relative_strength": -9.232681, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.227069, "energy": 16.096366, "activity_lines": [ 152.020668, 155.342364, 156.267192, 151.432625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }