{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97ee17c0-e1f4-46ab-aa77-890968dbd520", "symbol": "VST", "name": "Vistra Corp.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.061, "architecture_energy": 41.929, "architecture_maturity": 19.397, "architecture_confidence": 83.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.91, "rotation_up": 18.53, "upward_expansion": 10.67, "deceleration": 37.58, "rotation_down": 59.41, "downward_expansion": 79.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2613.849984, 2673.285386, 2684.276931, 2709.503735 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2420.459961, "trend_reference": 2742.606107, "distance_from_trend": -0.11746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2271.27654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.300663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021696, "excess_performance": 0.03297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075309, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.108757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5420, "relative_activity": 1.014544, "balance": 2.108757, "dry_up": 0.479335, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100078, "annualized_volatility": 0.483191, "from_high_reference": -0.389297, "from_low_reference": 0.046459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2742.606107, "fair_value_reference": 2271.27654, "structural_low": 2313.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056225, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06941, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161031, "worst_return": -0.132902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172785, "worst_return": -0.208234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014884, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014884, "worst_return": 0.014884, "sufficient": false }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.221874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117752, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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"volume": 2168, "typical_volume": 5126.1, "trend": 2763.149645, "fair_value": 2258.477411, "relative_strength": -18.452307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.999744, "energy": 15.313188, "activity_lines": [ 2712.393327, 2728.26998, 2712.233332, 2731.612747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2420.459961, "volume": 5420, "typical_volume": 5342.3, "trend": 2742.606107, "fair_value": 2271.27654, "relative_strength": -22.300663, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.061324, "energy": 41.929036, "activity_lines": [ 2613.849984, 2673.285386, 2684.276931, 2709.503735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }