{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97eea96c-23ad-4159-b1a1-d9bd77f224ae", "symbol": "XLUS", "name": "Invesco Utilities S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.592, "architecture_energy": 11.955, "architecture_maturity": 15.854, "architecture_confidence": 62.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.85, "rotation_up": 29.81, "upward_expansion": 29.35, "deceleration": 53.88, "rotation_down": 40.47, "downward_expansion": 27.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 654.286654, 657.868175, 657.560237, 659.17914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 637.099976, "trend_reference": 657.115, "distance_from_trend": -0.030459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 549.814747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.717699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027166, "excess_performance": -0.024069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06794, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.567801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6276, "relative_activity": 1.711434, "balance": 0.567801, "dry_up": 0.927709, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031054, "annualized_volatility": 0.193183, "from_high_reference": -0.079867, "from_low_reference": 0.083503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 657.115, "fair_value_reference": 549.814747, "structural_low": 620.299988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.010491, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.001004, "regime_survival": 0.294118, "best_return": 0.118287, "worst_return": -0.071819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013207, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.11305, "worst_return": -0.132863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018976, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.175385, "worst_return": -0.07738, 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"close": 649.599976, "volume": 3379, "typical_volume": 3718.9, "trend": 656.341669, "fair_value": 548.519939, "relative_strength": -6.906696, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.753407, "energy": 14.878387, "activity_lines": [ 663.47666, 661.60818, 659.855715, 660.420539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 637.099976, "volume": 6276, "typical_volume": 3667.1, "trend": 657.115, "fair_value": 549.814747, "relative_strength": -8.717699, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.591956, "energy": 11.954978, "activity_lines": [ 654.286654, 657.868175, 657.560237, 659.17914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }